Last month, Bhutan and China held their 25th round of bilateral border talks in Beijing. Bhutan's Foreign Minister, Tandi Dorji, shocked India by expressing Bhutan's sincere desire for a swift resolution of the border dispute and the establishment of diplomatic relations with China. This unexpected development caught many in New Delhi off guard, highlighting the intricate diplomatic dance underway in the region.
The backdrop of these talks is crucial to understanding the significance of King Wangchuck's visit. The talks, held after a seven-year hiatus following the Doklam standoff in 2017, have been marked by a determination to find common ground. Bhutan and China's active engagement during this period, including the signing of a "three-step roadmap," showcases Bhutan's diplomatic finesse.
China's Calculations and Bhutan's Gains
China's interest in Bhutan is not merely territorial; it's part of a broader strategic calculus. Experts in China have hailed the progress in talks with Bhutan as a significant diplomatic breakthrough. For Bhutan, the stakes are high. Normalizing relations with China could grant the Himalayan kingdom diplomatic ties with a P5 country, a move that could reshape its international standing. Currently, Bhutan maintains diplomatic relations with only 54 nations, and this unique status has been described as "self-isolation" by analysts.
India's Concerns: The Siliguri Corridor Dilemma
India's apprehension stems from the potential impact of the border talks on the Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken's Neck, a narrow stretch connecting the Indian mainland to its northeastern states. The Doklam plateau, an area under dispute between Bhutan and China, is strategically vital due to its proximity to the Siliguri Corridor. If the talks lead to a border deal involving Doklam, India fears it could jeopardize its security in the vulnerable corridor, making it susceptible to Chinese influence.
Bhutan's historical ties with India, governed by the Indo-Bhutan Friendship Treaty of 1949, have long been a pillar of stability in the region. Bhutanese military training by the Indian Armed Forces, combined with India's air defense support and substantial development aid, underscore the interdependence between the two nations. Additionally, Bhutan serves as a crucial buffer against potential Chinese security threats in the Himalayas.
King Wangchuck's Visit: A Diplomatic Balancing Act
Against this backdrop, King Wangchuck's visit to India assumes paramount importance. While the joint statement released after the visit did not explicitly mention the border issues, the timing and focus of the trip suggest that discussions on this pressing matter were likely on the agenda. The King's diplomatic initiative serves as a delicate balancing act, reaffirming Bhutan's friendship with India while simultaneously exploring options with China.
In a region marked by shifting alliances and geopolitical complexities, Bhutan's royal diplomacy reflects the challenges faced by smaller nations navigating the interests of regional giants. As talks between Bhutan and China progress, the world watches, recognizing the far-reaching implications of these discussions for the balance of power in South Asia.
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