As tensions mount between Canada and India over allegations of targeted violence against Sikhs in Canada, experts warn that Indian-based cyber threats may intensify, and immigration processing could slow down, though trade ties are expected to remain stable.
The diplomatic fallout escalated Tuesday when a Canadian official told a parliamentary security committee that Indian Home Minister Amit Shah allegedly masterminded plots against Canadian Sikhs. Indian officials have denied the claims, which follow Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's statements in October 2023 citing credible evidence linking Indian agents to the murder of Khalistan Separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia in June of that year.
In response, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats in October, accusing them of involvement. Meanwhile, four men have been charged in connection with Nijjar’s death, though their trial has yet to begin.
Canada’s Communications Security Establishment (CSE), which monitors cyber threats, has previously described India as an emerging cyber threat. “As Canada and India face potential tensions, we may see India flex its cyber capabilities against Canadians,” said Caroline Xavier, head of CSE, in a press conference Wednesday.
On the diplomatic front, further action from Ottawa may depend on additional evidence from the Nijjar case, according to Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. Should any new charges be filed against individuals in India, an extradition process could follow, although cooperation from India is considered unlikely.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller reported a significant reduction in Canada’s on-site immigration officials in India, down to just four from 27 in October 2023. This cutback has slowed visa processing and could impact travel for work, study, and other purposes. “This could worsen before it improves, and we’re preparing for that possibility,” Miller told Parliament.
Trade relations, however, have remained steady. India ranks as Canada’s 10th-largest trading partner, with both nations expressing a commitment to keeping economic exchanges on track. Canada exports significant amounts of pulse crops to India, and industry representatives have downplayed concerns over any trade impact from the diplomatic tensions.
“In a time of food price inflation and strong demand for pulse crops, we’re confident that affordability and availability will continue to drive government decisions,” said Pulse Canada President Greg Cherewyk in a statement. Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, echoed these sentiments, saying, “India and Canada have great potential in their trading relationship, and we hope to work back to positive trade discussions.”
While officials from Trudeau’s office and Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly did not respond to requests for comment, the escalating diplomatic and cyber dimensions could impact the long-standing relationship between the two countries, analysts say.
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